If the US accepts Iran’s 10 demands, Trump reportedly has, including a toll booth, Iran will have won.
Trump’s Statement
Truth Social: The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Apr 08, 2026, 5:22 AM
Trump Agrees to Many Iranian Demands
Sanction relief is coming up as Iran demanded. Trump agrees to many Iranian demands.
I list the demands below, but first a declaration from Hegseth.
The US Declares Decisive Victory
The Wall Street Journal reports Hegseth Declares ‘Decisive’ Victory Over Iran
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared “decisive military victory” over Iran, saying the country’s missile program was functionally destroyed. “They can no longer build missiles” and the U.S. has destroyed Iran’s military industrial base, he said.
“By any measure, Epic Fury decimated Iran’s military and rendered it combat ineffective for years to come,” Hegseth said, referring to the military campaign’s name. Hegseth’s comments came hours after President Trump announced a two-week cease-fire, claiming that Iran had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Had Iran not agreed to Trump’s terms, America’s next targets would have been the country’s power plants, bridges, oil and energy infrastructure, Hegseth said. “We were locked and loaded,” he said.
We could have been in this position six weeks ago, but team Trump chose war. So what now?
The WSJ lists 10 Iranian demands that the WSJ says Trump will, or is likely to accept. Issues involving Israel are out of Trump’s control.
A Closer Look at Iran’s 10 Demands Which the U.S. Might Accept
- A guarantee of nonaggression
Inevitable as a condition for ending the war. Iran has suggested to mediators that China or Russia could act as guarantors. One question is whether Israel will agree to go along with it given what it sees as an existential from Iran. Israel has agreed to the cease-fire, however, and it needs U.S. military support in any future campaign, limiting its freedom of action. Iran also established some deterrence with its missile strikes on the wider region, which it could repeat in the event of a new conflict. - Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz
This would be a big concession by the U.S., one that would give Iran an important new source of revenue and leverage. Iran, which has effectively shut the waterway, will supervise traffic during the cease-fire and hopes to establish a system of tolls. For America’s Arab Gulf allies, it is a nightmare scenario. U.S. officials such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio have said it would be unacceptable for Iran to hold sway over the waterway, transit point for a fifth of world oil supplies, but it may be a fait accompli. Iran has control now, wants it to continue and can maintain it with only occasional strikes on shipping. - Accepting an Iranian right to enrich uranium
On its face this would allow Iran to keep producing fuel that could be used to build nuclear weapons, while the U.S. has demanded an end to enrichment and the dismantling of key nuclear sites such as Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan. But there could be wiggle room. Previous rounds of negotiations have looked at ways that Iran could maintain a symbolic hold on enrichment but with strict limits that reduce its risks. - Lifting of all primary sanctions
The U.S. has said it would lift economic restrictions on Iran if it agrees to its demands regarding the nuclear program. Ending America’s longstanding trade ban, in place since the 1980s, could pave the way for U.S. companies to sign deals to do business in the Islamic Republic, which is something Tehran openly encouraged in talks this February. Still, U.S. investors tend to be wary of the country because of its political risks and often corrupt and heavily bureaucratic system. - Lifting of all secondary sanctions
If primary sanctions are removed, U.S. bans on banking and trading oil with Iran could also be eased. The U.S. is able to pressure Iran through its dominance of the global financial system and lifting these so-called secondary sanctions could open a flow of revenue to support Iran’s battered economy. - Termination of all Security Council resolutions
Iran in particular is looking for the United Nations Security Council to drop a 2025 arms embargo. A similar ban had been lifted earlier but was reimposed last year as concern grew among European nations over Iran’s supply of missiles and drones to Russia to support its campaign in Ukraine. - Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions
This would be a considerable prize for Iran. But getting it to comply with nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty safeguards is also the U.S.’s main lever to compel Iran to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Lifting the International Atomic Energy Agency’s resolutions would be complicated given the patchwork of measures and jurisdictions including the U.S., European Union, individual European states and the United Nations, giving Iran hawks plenty of opportunity to object. - Payment of reparations to Iran
The U.S. is unlikely to agree to this but Iran and mediators have floated the idea of using fees on Hormuz traffic as a way to fund reconstruction. Other Arab nations have proposed using frozen Iranian oil funds in Qatar and elsewhere to finance Iran’s rebuilding efforts, an idea Iran is open to. - Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region
The U.S. had 40,000 troops in the Middle East before the war. Trump has wanted to reduce that presence, closing bases in Syria and some in Iraq. But these bases are also more important to Gulf monarchies now facing an emboldened Iran. The United Arab Emirates has already said it would double down on security ties with the U.S. Analysts say the end of the war will likely force a continued role for the U.S. in the region. - Cease-fires on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon
Israel has refused to accept this and is unlikely to be persuaded to halt its attacks as part of the talks. Iran has stood aside over the past three years as Israel pounded Lebanese ally Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza and Yemen’s Houthis, so it is unlikely to be a deal breaker.
Yes, that is real.
So, Who really Won?
Mark Levin, a conservative talk-show host whose commentary on the Iran war has been followed closely by the president, was more blunt about his dissatisfaction with the cease-fire agreement. “These 10 points are an absolute disaster,” Levin posted Wednesday.
Some of the most hawkish voices in President Trump’s ear about the war in Iran aren’t pleased with some of the details of the cease-fire deal. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) said Wednesday morning that the agreement had some “troubling aspects” and that he wants Vice President JD Vance and the architects of the deal “coming forward to Congress and explaining how a negotiated deal meets our national security objectives in Iran.”
Major Victory for Iran
It’s hard to view the 10-point list as anything other than a major victory for Iran.
We could have been here 6 weeks ago and without point number two. Heck, we were in a better spot over a decade ago.
This deal is in may ways much worse than the deal Obama negotiated and signed on July 14, 2015.
Trump tore that deal up, claiming he could do better. Did he?
What If Iran Just Honored Obama’s Nuclear Deal? Would We Be at War?
On March 25, I asked What If Iran Just Honored Obama’s Nuclear Deal? Would We Be at War?
Trump’s First Term Flashback
- Trump’s US State Department: Iran honoring the terms.
- Trump’s Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: Iran honoring the terms.
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Iran honoring the terms.
- Arms Control Association: Iran honoring the terms.
- All US European allies: Iran honoring the terms.
- Every other signee of the accord: Iran honoring the terms.
- Trump’s top general Gen. Joseph Dunford: Iran honoring the terms.
- Trump’s Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis: Iran was complying with the terms of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal
All of those points are on Congressional Record. Both Gen. Joseph Dunford and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis told Congress that “Iran was complying with the terms of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal.”
You can believe whatever lies you want, but you cannot deny Congressional record.
Iran was honoring the deal. Click above for details.
And now …
Iran Trolls Trump
Joint Venture With Iran?
Joint Toll Both Would Be Beautiful
“We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it, also securing it from lots of other people. It’s a beautiful thing”
Fox News Doesn’t Like the Deal Either
Satire of the Day?
Israel Was Informed Late About Cease-Fire Deal and Wasn’t Happy
The Wall Street Journal reports Israel Was Informed Late About Cease-Fire Deal and Wasn’t Happy
Israel, which wasn’t formally part of the Iran negotiations, expressed unhappiness after learning that a deal was finalized at a late stage without consultation.
Israel said it had halted attacks on Iran but was continuing military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah, prompting protests from Iran.
Iran signaled its intention to continue asserting influence over Hormuz and some ships reported receiving radio messages from Iranian forces saying they needed Iran’s permission to cross the strait. Few ships transited the strait on Wednesday.
Some Trump-aligned hawks, including Sen. Lindsey Graham, criticized parts of the Iran cease-fire.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said its fingers are “on the trigger” ahead of negotiations set to start Friday in Islamabad.
Gulf countries including Kuwait, Qatar and the U.A.E reported continued missile and drone attacks despite the cease-fire.
Ship Passage
Please note that Ships Aren’t Yet Moving in the Strait of Hormuz
In the waterway Wednesday morning, Iran was telling ships anchored near the strait to obtain permission from the the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy before crossing or risk being destroyed, according to a marine radio recording shared with The Wall Street Journal by a vessel crew member. Crew members stuck in the Persian Gulf said that warplanes are still present, and they haven’t received any clear guidance from Iran—or their local agents—on whether it is safe to pass.
According to ship tracker MarineTraffic, there are 426 tankers, 34 LPG carriers, and 19 LNG vessels in the Persian Gulf among hundreds of other containerships and general cargo vessels.
My Assessment of What Happened
- Trump, not Iran was desperate for a way to de-escalate.The10-point deal proves that.
- Trump appears ready to accept some Iranian demands that the US laughed at six weeks ago.
- Iran knew Trump’s weak point was higher gasoline prices and inflation, ultimately forcing Trump to a deal.
- Trump gets to declare victory, which everyone knew would happen no matter what.
- The US and Iran may have a toll booth on the strait. This means higher energy prices permanently. Oh well “look at the money we will be making.”
- All of the above came at a cost to Iran too. Devastation is everywhere.
- But hey, all sanctions will be removed. This will give Iran money to rebuild. Kushner will be working on deals soon.
- Israel and the warmongers are not happy. That’s always good news.
Short Summation
Trump’s Denial
Truth Social: Numerous Agreements, Lists, and Letters are being sent out by people that have absolutely nothing to do with the U.S.A. / Iran Negotiation, in many cases, they are total Fraudsters, Charlatans, and WORSE. They will be rapidly exposed after our Federal Investigation is completed. There is only one group of meaningful “POINTS” that are acceptable to the United States, and we will be discussing them behind closed doors during these Negotiations. These are the POINTS that are the basis on which we agreed to a CEASEFIRE. It is something that is reasonable, and can easily be dispensed with. It’s very much like Fake News CNN last night, headlining a “source” that had no power or authority to write a Letter claiming great authority. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Apr 08, 2026, 10:04 AM
Questions and Answers of the Day
Q; Was this a good ending point?
A: Compared to “Living hell” and Trump’s pledge that “Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight”, of course.
Q: Who won?
A: Iran, obviously. But Iran threw Trump enough bones that Trump can declare victory.
Q: Will Israel go along?
A: No.
Q: What happens to gasoline prices?
A: Down from here, probably sooner than later, but definitely higher than before Trump made this mess.
Q: What about fertilizer, helium, aluminum, and other targets destroyed by Iran.
A: Prices will be much higher, permanently. It will take years to fix Mideast infrastructure damaged in this stupid war.
Q: How does this impact the midterm election?
A: That’s very difficult to answer, but likely little from here. The key words being “from here” other than a possible short-term bounce.
The war was undoubtedly very bad for Trump. That’s why he was desperate for a deal, even one with onerous terms as described above.
Trump may have stopped further damage today, but permanently higher inflation remains a huge problem.
Declaring a total win will not change inflation dynamics baked into the cake. Nor will it fix damage caused by entering a voluntary war despite numerous pledges not to do so.
Strategic Win for Iran
Time to Cheer
You can cheer if you want. Heck, I am cheering! Any alternative is better than a “Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight” regardless of what Netanyahu, Lindsey Graham, and Mark Levin say.
You can call it 5D chess if you want. But if that’s what you think, you are only fooling yourself.
The attacks on Trump by Tucker Carlson, Mark Levin, and other extreme Right commentators will take some chips out of hardline MAGA supporters.
Trump repeatedly said no more wars and lower inflation.
Trump lied and that damage is not fixable. That’s worth cheering too, but it comes at a price of war, higher inflation, and extreme mistrust of anything Trump says.
By the Way, Iran Has More Demands
This post originated on MishTalk.Com
Thanks for Tuning In!
Mish
