Why Social Security Is Doomed: “Birthrate At Lowest Level on Record” … And the Future Is Unfunded

socialsecurityBy Mac Slavo

Here’s more evidence that the “recovery” never really happened, and good reason to think that the entire social net structure is doomed to fall apart.

The birthrate, long tied to economic growth, has been dropping to its lowest point in recorded history – both nationally and, in particular, in the state of California.

This demographic shift is bad news for the economy – in terms of housing, consumer markets, and especially for the long-term funding of Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare and other obligations that younger generations have typically been expected to pay into.

Whether or not you agree with the system in place, the fact that it is virtually certain to go bankrupt before the generation of baby boomers shift off this mortal coil should be troubling to everyone planning a future in the United States.

Official numbers show that the birthrate began to steadily decline in 2008 when the crisis hit and – unlike even during the Great Depression – hasn’t ever picked back up. 2016 saw the lowest point ever for California, even with higher births from immigrants factored in.

Via the L.A. Times:

California’s birthrate dropped to its lowest level ever in 2016, according to data released by the state’s Department of Finance.

Between July 2015 and July of this year, there were 12.42 births per 1,000 Californians, the agency said this week. The last time the birthrate came close to being that low was during the Great Depression, when it hit 12.6 per 1,000 in 1933.

But, unlike after the Depression, birthrates haven’t bounced back quickly as the economy has picked up.

California has been experiencing a years-long downward trend that likely stems from the recession, a drop in teenage pregnancies and an increase in people attending college and taking longer to graduate, therefore putting off having children…

“Eventually you think about having a child and by this point in time you’re in your early 30s,” he said… when women’s fertility begins to decrease…

Similarly, the national birthrate began falling in 2008 and continued to do so through 2013, when it hit a record low of 12.4 per 1,000 people.

Already, states and cities are unable to meet their pension obligations. A very bad game of musical chairs is in the works, and unless something major changes, it could spell ruin for aging generations to come, who will be forced to contend with a shrinking pool of support – both officially and unofficially – from younger generations.

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As the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year:

Sales of single-family homes are being weighed down by what Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, calls “the great delay,” the trend of millennials postponing milestones like marriage and having kids. Other ripple effects take years to show up, such as the drag of having fewer young workers paying into Social Security and Medicare…


“Everything is slower than we expected,” said Sam Sturgeon… he predicts that the total fertility rate won’t go above 1.9 babies per woman for the next five years or longer. An ideal birth rate is around 2.1 babies per woman, demographers say, since that’s the rate that’s needed to replace the current levels of population.

Right now, there is considerable optimism about a renewed age for the free market in America. Business is being wooed back by President-elect Trump.

But in the long term, the demographic pressures could impact the care and survival of the population. All the more reason to prepare for the worst, and reduce one’s dependency on the system as much as possible.

As Michael Snyder explained, the upcoming generation of “snowflake” millennials are, as whole, reluctant to move out of their parents’ basements, have difficulty finding real jobs, are stifled by student loans and a lifetime of debt, are putting off marriage and children – and consequently, will be inadequately prepared to financial support older generations as they age.

What if social security and pensions aren’t there when you need it? What if, even after being forced to pay for Obamacare, health care is inadequate or even inaccessible?

At the individual level, this is a clear incentive to prepare, and attempt to build a self-sufficient life that is not reliant on social programs or future-promises of assistance and support.

Promote your own health, and that of your family, and create a back-up plan in case one’s position in the pecking order of society should slip and fall, income should fade or medicines and health care should become out-of-reach.

The same tips to prepare for an emergency can be applied to the long game to prepare for a future of bankrupt and inept social services.

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You can read more from Mac Slavo at his site SHTFplan.com.

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9 Comments on "Why Social Security Is Doomed: “Birthrate At Lowest Level on Record” … And the Future Is Unfunded"

  1. So, on one side we have un-meetable pension obligations and on the other the “secret” CAFR accounts that are the invested pension funds with the stock market at an all time high. I’m confused.

  2. Yes, let’s once again demoralize every U.S. taxpayer by reminding them that their entire working lives are a pointless waste, that all the money disappearing from their paychecks will never be seen again. Let’s not tell them the reason for this is the grossly and falsely inflated Medicare/Medicaid budget, due to the practice of getting everyone from the age of two addicted to outrageously expensive prescription medications that not only don’t cure anyone of anything, they make them sicker and more costly to treat. Keeping working people depressed and in need of antidepressants so they can continue to slave their lives away? Do I detect a vicious cycle here?

    There is a criminal element siphoning off OUR SS funds, those “entitlements” that happen to belong to us, it’s called the pharmaceutical industry, the very same companies tasked with writing an Affordable Care Act so bloated it was literally unreadable by the drugged-out fools who passed it.

    • Great dot connecting, nicely articulated. …Yeah, there’s a reason several huge public pensions have failed and others are in serious trouble. Same reason over a decade ago congressional committees were discussing options for pooling all forms of retirement funds and savings to be distributed as the government sees fit (needs basis). Parallels the ACA designed to implode into a monolithic system.

      btw, some wealthy Establishment goons tied Hillary emerged to champion a new mandatory retirement withholding tax that would be channeled into the global casino of stocks and bonds

      • I believe a similar “casino mandate” was proffered by Reagan (or maybe it was actually Hillary’s batboy/husband, I’m too lazy to look it up) and the idea never grew legs. But I do remember reading the “SS is going bankrupt” meme back in my 30’s. I didn’t pay any attention to it then either and here I am, retired and collecting all that money I paid in. Are they just BSing us? Who would think such a thing? LOL

        The blogger OpenHand recently suggested that humanity intentionally manifested the situation we are in today as such a complete and total parody of how the world should function so that, when faced with utter insanity and blatant psychopathy, we would have no choice but to wake up. This notion has legs.

  3. OASD is welcome to buy me out, I’ll settle for an even Million.
    That would be nice then they can drop the 7% they steal out of every ones paychecks and drop the entire program. After all it is simply another tax.
    They call it an entitlement, rather than a savings account and the numbers they send to you are mere projections, not what the account holds.
    The swamp creatures would see the qtips come out of their cocoons with pitchforks raised.

  4. Canada’s public retirement program akin to our SSI has a private fund management company who has quadrupled their existing fund. The Federal Reserve bailed out the mortgage mess with close to $2T in QE (quantative easing) to Wall St. Bankers. They could just as easily issue a credit to those bankers to trade in favor of the Social Security Trust Fund. If they do well, entrust them with more of the actual trust fund, or just piggy-back with Canada’s fund managers, who have a proven track record. Giving investment control to recipients is certain disaster, a literal crap shoot.

  5. Odd you didn’t mention the fact that there are no jobs

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