David Rosenberg
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) made it official yesterday, and told us what Statistics Canada apparently knew back in April — the recession ended in mid-2009. The equity market rejoiced, which itself is amusing since supposedly the stock market is a discounting mechanism, but it goes to show that old news sells well. At the same time, there goes our “single-scoop” theory and the same bulls that told us how all we would get was a soft landing heading into 2008 are telling the masses that double-dips never happen.
Just remember this: the NBER also told us some years back that the prior recession ended in November 2001. Yet because we had a limbless recovery — one hand and one leg perhaps — the bull market in stocks and bear market in bonds was delayed for a year and a half back. And this recovery, with its sub 1% pace of real final sales, goes down as the weakest on record.
So, the recession technically ended 15 months ago; tell that to the 15 million unemployed and the 42% share of these ranks that have been looking for a job fruitlessly for at least six months.
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