Friday, August 20, 2010

The Phases of an Empire

David Redick
Activist Post

The analysis below explains why all empires and "Imperial Style" governments have failed throughout history, and why our Empire-USA faces the same fate. The only question is whether the people and government of the USA have the wisdom and will to engage in a "Managed Decline" by terminating the empire and imperial conduct on their own schedule, rather than by chaotic crash of the US Dollar, economy, and lifestyle. Take notice of the "Solutions" section in Part C below.


Part A: Key Points
  • An Empire is a nation that: 1) Owns colonies, and/or 2) Controls, or has great influence over, other nations. Empires require economic and military strength to start and maintain, and this is expensive.
  • All Empires fail, and for the same reasons: 1) Expense of military abroad, and subsidies at home.  2) Decline in domestic productivity (spoiled, parasitic citizens).   3) Corruption (illegal conduct) and decadence (unethical and immoral conduct) by leaders and citizens.
  • Empire-USA:  Our deal to other nations is:  we will be the world’s policeman and protect you, but you must accept our fake money and "influence." The USA is far into Phase 3-Failure. Look around you for the symptoms shown in Part B-3 and Part C below.



Chart Height Shows Combined Military and Economic Strength (Power and Wealth)


Part B: Events/Symptoms in each Phase

Phase 1 -- Growth
  • Land: Gain territory by "discovery" (too bad for the natives), or conquest.
  • Strength: Start growth of economic and military strength. Sound currency (precious metal, or convertible paper and convertible base-metal coins).
  • Government: Local and central government acts as a servant to protect the rights of citizens. No entangling alliances with other nations. New land is governed as a colony or part of homeland nation (becoming a sovereign republic may require a revolution). The army consists of volunteers protecting their homes and families, with no professional or standing army.
  • Ethics: Most government people and citizens are hard working and honest. Government is a servant.
Phase 2 -- Maturation
  • Land: Add contiguous land, or remote colonies, by conquest or negotiation.
  • Strength: Become a world leader in both economic and military strength. Homeland receives cheap imports from colonies. Currency is debased to allow more government spending, without raising taxes.                                            
  • Government: Grows stronger, more corrupt, and acts as boss, manager, nanny, owner, etc. Elected officials will do almost anything to retain their jobs. Power is used to manage other nations to impose/protect the Empire's interests. The central government increases control (superiority) over local (city and state) functions, often based on its power to create money to fund local projects. A standing army is created and consists of mostly conscripts, and professional careerists. Wars become more oriented to building and defending the Empire.
  • Ethics: Corruption and decadence grow due to decline in personal responsibility caused by nanny state.
Phase 3 -- Decline and/or Failure
  • Land: Lose colonies, or control of other nations, by revolution or voluntary release (due to expense and unrest).
  • Strength: No longer a world leader. Power declines by 50% or more, especially in foreign matters. Value of fake currency crashes in purchasing power by 50% or more. Default on debt (or pay off with low value paper money). 
  • Government: Becomes weak, more corrupt, and desperate. Leaders try to gain power (decrees, martial law, etc.) to survive citizen discontent. "Bread and Circuses" grow, now called grants, subsidies, stimulus, and entitlements. The army consists of mostly professional careerists, and volunteers, many of whom join because they can't find work elsewhere. Standards are lowered (criminal records, non-citizens, health issues) to aid recruiting for wars of empire (non-defense). Use of mercenaries and contractors grows toward 50% or more of total staff, and their loyaty is to their Generals (or Corporate officials), and original homeland, not the country that pays them.
  • Ethics: Corruption and decadence are rampant in both social and government conduct. Failure occurs as either:  A) Nation survives, but at a reduced level of strength and standard of living (England, France, Italy, Spain, and Russia are examples; see list in Part D), or B) Ceases to exist due to takeover by other nations or groups.

Part C: Empire-USA is in Phase 3: Decline and/or Failure

Problems:
  • High Expenses: The expense to maintain bases, and fight wars, worldwide exceeds the monetary and political benefits. The US has over 850 military bases, with troops (not counting embassies), in over 130 countries, and the US acts as the world’s policeman to protect its interests, and impose influence. Resistance by our "subjects" is building. Military expenses are a drag on the economy, and the troops get less than ideal equipment due to cost problems. Host nations are unhappy having our occupying troops.
  • High Debt: The US is a bankrupt Empire by any measure. It cannot hope to pay back over $13 trillion in national debt, or the about $50 trillion unfunded future obligations of domestic programs (Medicare, Social Security, etc.). Interest payments are huge. The US Dollar (USD) is still the world’s reserve currency (held as if gold by other nations; it can be viewed as a share in USA Inc.), despite the fact that the US is also the world’s biggest debtor, but doubts are rising in other countries who use and own dollars for trade. This combination has never occurred before in history! Thus, since all US government debt is denominated in USD, the government can create new low-value dollars out of thin air to pay its debts! A new form of default! The USD is in a precarious position due to excessive expansion of the money supply (inflation) and the USD could crash in value at any time. The extreme is hyperinflation, when the money becomes almost worthless. As with heroin, lots of fake money (the Federal Reserve Bank calls it liquidity) feels good at first, but has withdrawal pain called recession or depression. Since the Federal government never runs out of money, it often becomes the funder for state projects (with strings attached), and states' rights wither. This gives vote-getting power to Congressmen, and acquiescent State officials suck it up to avoid taxing to raise state funds.
  • Enemies: The US claims to be a world leader, but this is often a cover to be a bully to control other countries with an occupying force to gain land and resources. This started in 1812 with the failed invasion of Canada, then 1845 with the Mexican-American War, and 1898 with the Spanish-American war (which led to occupation/acquisition of the Philippines and Hawaii). The World Wars, Korea, Vietnam and others followed. The recent Balkans, Afghan, and Iraq wars are primarily about; 1. Control of oil (The US wants it all; no easy-cheap Mideast oil for India and China), 2. Defense of Israel, 3. Land for bases to control the Mideast, and 4. Continuation of oil sales in US Dollars by Iraq and Iran. The US entered/started all of these wars based on lies by leaders. What a disgrace and ripoff of the people! Trust and respect for the US has declined in the eyes of its citizens and other nations. This meddling foreign policy contributed to 9-11 and terror. The Federal government grasps for new, unconstitutional power.
  • Corruption and Bad Ethics: Ethics and social conduct are on the decline in the US. Corruption is rampant in both the government and business. Shady conduct is considered normal (gang theft by vote, "earmark" pork handouts, lying, etc.). Primetime TV is now riddled with sexual content, cursing, glorification of misconduct (The Sopranos, Desperate Housewives, etc.), and violence (NASCAR, cop shows). Sports are riddled with violence (the fans like it!) and cheating, condoned by coaches and team owners that want to sell more tickets. Little or none of the above occurred in the ‘50s. 

SOLUTIONS

Of the two ways to end the inevitable Phase 3 of an Empire (Decline or Failure), it is far less painful to engage in a "managed decline," or "nation restoration," compared to a massive depression. England and France are examples. A managed process would entail prompt action to:
  1. Invoke a major change in foreign policy by:  A. Terminating Empire-USA, and its role as policeman and bully of the world, and focus on homeland defense.  B. Reducing spending and conflict by closing most, or all, overseas bases, and keeping only a minimal standing army (primarily State-controlled National Guard).  C. Stop meddling in the affairs of other nations by force, sanctions, or bribery (no preemptive wars or occupations).  D. Promote free trade.  
  2. Invoke a similar change in domestic policy where:  A. Federal spending is reduced by 50% or more.  B. Creation of new fake money is ended.  C. Sound money is introduced (paper is convertible to precious metal), and the Federal Reserve System is abolished.  D. The Constitution and law are adhered to (with repeal of recent bad laws).  E. Market intervention (favors to firms, unions, people) is ended, and free enterprise capitalism is used. 
 
These steps would help bring the government back to its proper role to, "Protect the personal and property rights of citizens, as individuals, from threat or violation by others." With this approach, the USA and its citizens would enjoy a future of peace, prosperity, justice and good ethics. It always works! I cite W. Germany in 1948, and later Ireland, Prov. of Alberta, Canada, and New Zealand.





Part D: The History of Empire Phases 


Name
Start (Phase 1)
End (Phase 3)
Years
Status
Babylonian
1900 bc
1600 bc
300
gone
Assyrian
900 bc
612 bc
288
gone
Carthage
800 bc
100 bc
700
gone
Persian
648 bc
330 bc
318
gone
Athenian-Greek
500 bc
300 bc
200
gone
Macedonian
338 bc
309 bc
29
gone
Chinese
221 bc
1912
233
gone
Roman
27 bc
476-1453
503
gone, split to Byz. &
Holy Roman
Byzantine
1054
1453
399
gone
Arabian
630
1258
628
gone
Holy Roman
800
1806
1006
gone
Portuguese
1495
1975
480
Homeland survived
Mongol
1206
1920
714
gone, Mongolia survived
Abyssinian
1270
1974
704
gone
Ottoman
1281
1923
642
gone, Turkey survived
Spanish
1492
1975
483
Homeland survived
British
1500
1950
450
Homeland survived
French
1600
1965
365
Homeland survived
Dutch
1627
1944
317
Homeland survived
Austro-Hung.
1804
1918
114
Austria and Hung. surv’d
USA
1845
(active)
162+
In Ph. 3; #1 world power
German
1884
1918
34
Homeand survived
Japanese
1871
1945
76
Homeland survived


Sources:
 1. An Inquiry into the Decline and Fall of Nations, W. Playfair, England, 1805 (Rare books library, Toronto, Canada)
 2. Empire of Debt, Bonner and Wiggins, 2006

Author, David Redick




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21 comments:

geo1671 said...

David, I got bad news for you--9/11 attacks were self inflected and with the daughter Israel's help.
America was never attacked on Sept 11 2001.Next time call it--self rape :^(

PAHALIK said...

I believe the 9/11 attacks are in the same vein as the Kennedy assassination. We will never know the true story. Who can truly say?

Activist said...

I agree that we might never know, but there are a whole lot of questions. And we DO know that the government is not happy with any questions about that particular day. I suggest that we keep asking questions, and continue to demand logical answers. -- M.E.

Tariq said...

As you suggested, here's a question: Why did 9/11 Commission not mention WTC 7 in its report? Was it because it was not a part of the caveman Osama Bin Laden's plan?

arpdjp said...

WTC7!!!! Yes a major thorn in their side which one day we will force them to address!! They can't talk their way around it so they don't say ANYTHING!!!!! It's time to take our country back!!!!!

Ancient One said...

A very interesting piece indeed but I find the lack of the power projection indicated as to be an indication too of just how much power they have.

For much of the US's imperial history there has always been a counter nation or empire whether its Soviet, Chinese or those growing in influence and power as the previous influences wane in various regions.

This didn't apply however to the British empire which projected a massive amount of power globally, far far more than America has at its peak, with 4/5th's of the worlds population under the British rule, the empire became ungainly, hard to manage and began to implode in on itself around the turn of the 19th/20th century.

Germany and the UK don't quite fit the formula anyway, Germany has evolved yet again into an industrial powerhouse and the UK has managed through control of the commonwealth to retain some world dominance even though it is a very minor world power in terms of military projection but its economic power is far higher than other nations, certainly Britain speaks for its commonwealth with its block vote in the UN thus gaining far more control than other nations in that arena but Britain is also a shirt tail clinger in that it would likely have not survived if for the protection of NATO as Britain as a land base militarily is supremely positioned for control over Europe and pre invasion points into the US and lusted over by the Soviets and Nazi's too n their time.

usgovtpoisoningyou said...

The US empire is being maintained at the expense of the health and safety of you and your loved ones.

Read about it and join the revolution to change our government :

http://usgovtiskillingyouandyourfamily.blogspot.com/2010/05/us-govt-is-literally-poisoning-and.html

Bill Mcdonald said...

I agree with Mr. Redick's article with one caveat.
The rest of the world knows we have nuclear weapons and that we are not afraid to use them.

Great article, sir!

arius said...

This site seems to have the usual assortment of know nothing Jew haters that are ripe for conversion to Islam.

Activist said...

arius:

No one mentioned anything about hating Jews on this thread except for you. The first comment referred to the state of Israel from a geopolitical standpoint. Although we don't control the comments of our readers, this site promotes peace, liberty, justice and tolerance.

If anyone, no matter their race, religion, or nationality violates these principles they deserve to be called out -- and no group is immune to criticism.

These principles are far more important than defending the "name" of one religion while trashing another.

Please do your religion a favor and spread peace and love, and refrain from theological insults on Activist Post.

Thanks for taking the time to get involved.

ray said...

This is a very simplified model; numbers and status in Part D table were wrong.

US is not an empire. US is a product of globalization begun 300 hundred years ago.
There is no such thing as phases (or stages) of US.
Keep your head clear, are you crazy? No one wants
to replace US. Do not let your own shadow scared you to death.

Bilder said...

The US is just a instrument for the international rulers and banksters who have the power base in Britain and other countries over the centuries,look at CFR and Trilateral etc or just follow the money!!!
They are families and have a plan for generations,that is why many people cannot understand how they can do it over centuries!!

Anonymous said...

David:

Great, insightful post !

It's quite clear that we have but one candidate for the White House who admits to the problems you cite & has honest (not perfect) potential answers for the crisis: Dr. Ron Paul !

For those who are perplexed at the seeming ability of a group of conspirators to fight against almost the whole world & reach from beyond the grave, I suggest they dust off their bibles and read Psalm 2, where the Holy Writ give the basic construct for how the 'kings & judges of the earth' fight against all that's Right & True, yet in the end, they are the losers !

It's when the common people gain renewed insight & transcendent wisdom - only available from Natural Law & Biblical Law, and both of those 'twin witnesses' - applied with vigor - that you have a 'revolutionary epoch'.

Say, a Reformation, which lifted the common man from the ignorance of the dunghill, to know more than popes or princes.

Some years later, that precious seed was transplanted into America via the Pilgrims, later the Puritains, which laid the seed for the colonies, leading to the founding fathers who laid the distilled Principles of the Reformation ("Lex Rex", 'the Law is King' - which truly made all men equal before the Law) of the Declaration of Independence.

That was the earthquake that shook both Pope & King from their seats of power, forever.

Why do I bring up this historical chain of events ?

I do so because it's hard to see where a given culture is, when you're part of it. If that is so, then it is even harder to see where we're headed as a result of the forces now at work.

One thing is for sure: History is NOT random chance - nor is it a chess game played by our heavenly Father, rather it's an outworking of the agencies of those who love the Truth, and those who fight it & embrace falsehood.

It's also evident from all the data provided by David in this marvellous article that now is NOT the time to embrace some foolish 'Status Quo' assumptions.

The attitude we ought to have now is one of taking Principled, concrete actions that are carefully weighed.

Try to network with those who are also on a similar path - our family is endeavoring to meet with others of like mind. We meet daily to pray to the LORD for the future of this wayward nation.

We're also working hard to campaign for Dr. Ron Paul - the man with enough integrity to address our problems at the root.

I appreciate this article and wanted to add a bit to the discussion.

This is a sobering piece, that I will share with others - thank you for taking the time to write it - we'll be sure to check back for more.

David in East Texas

SwanKnight said...

In regards to Empire. Ask yourself this question: "What's in it for me?" Although fiction, the works of Charles Dickens should tell you just how much the British empire benefitted the average citizen. All I see in maintaining a USA empire is polititians getting more powerful and the rich getting richer. The rest of us, the 99% so to speak, get to wave our plastic flags and shout "USA! USA!" BTW, I don't see poor Switzerland on the list of empires. They have it so bad, don't they?

Anonymous said...

That this author believes that the free-market which is clearly failing everywhere on a massive scale would somehow help restore things to normalcy is highly amusing. One would think that with the extremist concepts such as the central planning and free market so convincingly discredited it would be obvious that the time has come for the golden middle between these extremes; namely the directed economy where the ownership is private but the government makes sure that business operates in the national interest at all times. That what they use in Israel today which assured Israel's continued prosperity(do a search on 'Israel's lonely prosperity' as the world goes from bad to worse and that's what has been used in Germany after the complete collapse of the Weimar republic and allowed Germany to become strong enough economically in several years to be able to challenge militarily the US, the Soviet Union and most of Europe at the same time

Anonymous said...

What free market?

Anonymous said...

Where is the free-market that's failing? The money power elites that have always owned the governments. Think railroad robber barons who got EXCLUSIVE rights to land, granted by the politicians in their pockets. Or the $700 billion bailouts of losers at the expense of taxpayers. Where is the free-market? The whole economy is already a quasi-governmental entity. And check history: where has a centrally directed economy ever prospered? Let's see, Soviet Union, no. Nazi Germany, who challenged the US, Soviet Union, and most of Europe, FAILED after 5 years, so no. China, headed for the same comeuppance that the US is, so no. Oh yeah, Israel, with a population less than Texas. And isn't funny how the "national interest" always means the interests of big corporations and billionaires. Oil companies and war profiteers ("defense contractors")make money when the US invades Mideast countries. War is welfare for the arms manufacturers like GE.National interest - such a nebulous term, which always means the interests of those in charge.

Anonymous said...

I believe there are massive flaws in dates and length of the certain empires lives as you can say the Japanese empire while switching rulers a number of times have gone on for way longer than stated.

But everything else is quite sound.

Carnivore said...

David, you may also want to check out Sir John Glubb's The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival, a small pamphlet published in 1978 which argues along the same lines. PDF available here:
http://people.uncw.edu/kozloffm/glubb.pdf

Anonymous said...

Thank you for posting this. Thought it was very good.

Mail Forwarding said...

flags and shout "USA! USA!" BTW, I don't see poor Switzerland on the list of empires. They have it so bad, don't they?

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